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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Business Strategy Value Chain Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | Value Chain Analysis shows where value is created, costs accrue, and differentiation becomes possible along the process. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a value-chain map and lever list. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 2-4 h | Half day |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-8 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Value Chain Map, Lever List |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | StrategyBusiness modelDiagnosisAnalysis |
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