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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 1-4 Wochen | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 6-30 Experten | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth |
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.
