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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Agile Affinity Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When many tasks need to be classified quickly, it sorts them by perceived effort and similarity. It reduces the effort of fine-grained estimation for large volumes. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 1-4 Wochen | 30-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 6-30 Experten | 3-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Affinity Size Map, Grouped Estimates, Unclear Items |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | EstimationBacklogRelative sizing |
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