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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Operations Causal Factor Analysis |  Operations A3 Problem Solving |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events. | For a complex deviation with several people involved, the method bundles problem, analysis, and decision onto one page. It creates a shared working space where causes, countermeasures, and follow-up fit together. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 2-6 h | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-10 | 2-5 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Event Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective Actions | A3 Report, Action Plan, Root Cause Analysis |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline | LeanProblem solvingCoachingOperations |
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