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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 45-90 min | 30-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-8 | 1-10 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight |
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.
