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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Knowledge Modeling Concept Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | Concept Mapping arranges terms and relationships in a network that makes subject-matter connections tangible. It fits when a topic needs to be understood structurally rather than linearly. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 45-90 min | 1-2 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-8 | 1-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Concept Map, Relationship Labels, Knowledge Gaps |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | KnowledgeConceptsMappingSensemaking |
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.
