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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 45-60 min | 0.5-2 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-8 | 4-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning |
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