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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Innovation Lean Startup |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | For uncertain business assumptions, the method forces the idea into contact with real market reactions early. It separates wishful picture, assumption, and observable behavior, so that learning becomes faster than planning. This translates uncertainty into measurable insight. |
Complexitysame | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 45-60 min | Wochen bis Monate je Lernzyklus |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-8 | 2-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Hypothesis list, MVPs, Learning reports, Pivot or persevere decision |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | LeanStartupValidationMVP |
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.
