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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Argument Mapping |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When statements, evidence, and counterarguments get mixed up, a debate quickly loses its structure. Argument Mapping breaks a thesis down into its reasoning and makes visible what it really rests on. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 1-3 h | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-8 | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Argument Map, Evidence Gaps, Decision Rationale | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | SensemakingDecisionRationale | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth |
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