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Criterion
Paper illustration for PERT Estimation.
Decision Making
PERT Estimation
A/B Testing workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Growth
A/B Testing
Paper illustration for Wideband Delphi.
Decision Making
Wideband Delphi
Purposedifferent
On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes.When two variants compete, discussions quickly decide by taste rather than effect. A/B Testing checks behavior under controlled conditions and separates real improvement from chance or expectation effects.A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes.
Complexitydifferent
MediumHighHigh
Timedifferent
15-45 min1-4 Wochen1-4 h or multiple rounds
Participantsdifferent
1-81-64-12 Experten
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncAsyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk NotesExperiment results, Decision log, Learning summaryEstimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes
Tagsno overlap
EstimationUncertaintyRisk
ExperimentsGrowthAnalyticsValidation
EstimationExpertsForecasting
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Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration for Smoke Test.
Product Discovery
Smoke Test
Paper illustration for Three-Point Estimation.
Decision Making
Three-Point Estimation
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method