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Criterion
Paper illustration for NoEstimates.
Agile
NoEstimates
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper illustration for Three-Point Estimation.
Decision Making
Three-Point Estimation
Purposedifferent
When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules.In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowMedium
Timedifferent
laufend20–45 min10-30 min je Item
Participantsdifferent
2-12Small cross-functional group1-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing RulesRisk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logThree-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes
Tagsno overlap
EstimationForecastingFlow
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
EstimationUncertaintyForecasting
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration for PERT Estimation.
Decision Making
PERT Estimation
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration for Constraint Analysis.
Decision Making
Constraint Analysis
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method