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| Criterion |  Agile NoEstimates |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | laufend | 15-45 min | 20–45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-12 | 1-8 | Small cross-functional group |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationForecastingFlow | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning |
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