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| Criterion |  Innovation Lean Startup |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | For uncertain business assumptions, the method forces the idea into contact with real market reactions early. It separates wishful picture, assumption, and observable behavior, so that learning becomes faster than planning. This translates uncertainty into measurable insight. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | Wochen bis Monate je Lernzyklus | 15-45 min | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 1-8 | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Hypothesis list, MVPs, Learning reports, Pivot or persevere decision | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note |
Tagsno overlap | LeanStartupValidationMVP | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth |
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.
