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| Criterion |  Product Discovery Jobs to Be Done |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When switching motives and progress are unclear, it reconstructs the situation from real customer circumstances. It shows why a switch happens and what kind of progress is being sought. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 1-3 Wochen | 10-30 min je Item | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 5-12 Interviews | 1-8 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Job Stories, Outcome Statements, Opportunity List | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | CustomerOutcomesNeeds | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |
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