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Criterion
Paper illustration of a JTBD interview notebook with a decision timeline, forces of change and a concise job hypothesis.
Product Discovery
Jobs to Be Done
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
When switching motives and progress are unclear, it reconstructs the situation from real customer circumstances. It shows why a switch happens and what kind of progress is being sought.When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitydifferent
MediumHighLow
Timedifferent
1-3 Wochen1-4 Wochen45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
5-12 Interviews6-30 Experten2-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncAsyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Job Stories, Outcome Statements, Opportunity ListExpert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
CustomerOutcomesNeeds
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of DIBB with its method-specific working model.
Product Strategy
DIBB
Paper illustration of Opportunity Scoring with its method-specific working model.
Product Discovery
Opportunity Scoring
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration of Business Model Stress Test with its method-specific working model.
Business Strategy
Business Model Stress Test