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Criterion
How Might We
Innovation
How Might We
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Purposedifferent
With a stuck problem carrying many implicit assumptions, the method translates observations into open, workable questions. It sharpens the problem frame without pre-thinking the solution, turning frustration or fuzziness into a search space with clear direction.In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.
Complexitydifferent
LowLowHigh
Timedifferent
30–45 min20–45 min1-4 Wochen
Participantsdifferent
1-10Small cross-functional group6-30 Experten
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopAsync
Outputdifferent
HMW Questions, Challenge Framing, Idea PromptsRisk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logExpert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes
Tagsno overlap
FramingOpportunityIdeationQuestions
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration of Business Model Stress Test with its method-specific working model.
Business Strategy
Business Model Stress Test
Paper illustration for Constraint Analysis.
Decision Making
Constraint Analysis
Paper illustration of DIBB with its method-specific working model.
Product Strategy
DIBB