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Criterion
How Might We
Innovation
How Might We
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Purposedifferent
With a stuck problem carrying many implicit assumptions, the method translates observations into open, workable questions. It sharpens the problem frame without pre-thinking the solution, turning frustration or fuzziness into a search space with clear direction.In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.
Complexitydifferent
LowLowMedium
Timedifferent
30–45 min20–45 min45-60 min
Participantsdifferent
1-10Small cross-functional group2-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
HMW Questions, Challenge Framing, Idea PromptsRisk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking
Tagsno overlap
FramingOpportunityIdeationQuestions
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test
Paper illustration for Constraint Analysis.
Decision Making
Constraint Analysis