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Criterion
How Might We
Innovation
How Might We
Paper illustration of Futures Wheel with its method-specific working model.
Systems Thinking
Futures Wheel
Iceberg Model method illustration showing its working structure
Systems Thinking
Iceberg Model
Purposedifferent
With a stuck problem carrying many implicit assumptions, the method translates observations into open, workable questions. It sharpens the problem frame without pre-thinking the solution, turning frustration or fuzziness into a search space with clear direction.The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event.The Iceberg Model separates visible events from patterns, structures, and mental models. This turns a single observation into a deeper understanding of why a problem keeps recurring.
Complexitydifferent
LowMediumLow
Timedifferent
30–45 min60-120 min30-60 min
Participantsdifferent
1-103-102-10
Formatsame
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
HMW Questions, Challenge Framing, Idea PromptsFutures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic SignalsIceberg Worksheet, Pattern Notes, Intervention Ideas
Tagsno overlap
FramingOpportunityIdeationQuestions
ForesightSystems thinkingSignals
Systems thinkingRoot causePatterns
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration for Behavior Over Time Graph.
Systems Thinking
Behavior Over Time Graph
Paper illustration for CATWOE Analysis.
Systems Thinking
CATWOE Analysis
Paper illustration for Current Reality Tree
Systems Thinking
Current Reality Tree
Paper illustration of Family Tree Analysis with its method-specific working model.
Operations
Family Tree Analysis