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Criterion
How Might We
Innovation
How Might We
Paper illustration for Evaporating Cloud.
Systems Thinking
Evaporating Cloud
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
With a stuck problem carrying many implicit assumptions, the method translates observations into open, workable questions. It sharpens the problem frame without pre-thinking the solution, turning frustration or fuzziness into a search space with clear direction.The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitydifferent
LowMediumLow
Timedifferent
30–45 min60-120 min45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
1-102-82-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
HMW Questions, Challenge Framing, Idea PromptsConflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next ExperimentsAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
FramingOpportunityIdeationQuestions
Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration for CATWOE Analysis.
Systems Thinking
CATWOE Analysis
Paper illustration of DIBB with its method-specific working model.
Product Strategy
DIBB
Paper illustration for Future Reality Tree.
Systems Thinking
Future Reality Tree