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Criterion
How Might We
Innovation
How Might We
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration of a branching tree with an outcome at its root, customer opportunities, solution options and small experiment cards.
Product Discovery
Opportunity Solution Tree
Purposedifferent
With a stuck problem carrying many implicit assumptions, the method translates observations into open, workable questions. It sharpens the problem frame without pre-thinking the solution, turning frustration or fuzziness into a search space with clear direction.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.When discovery keeps swinging between goals, ideas, and learning loops, it creates clear steering logic. It connects the desired outcome, opportunities, and experiments into a legible structure.
Complexitydifferent
LowLowMedium
Timedifferent
30–45 min45-90 min1-2 h Setup, laufend
Participantsdifferent
1-102-82-6
Formatsame
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
HMW Questions, Challenge Framing, Idea PromptsAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanOpportunity Solution Tree, Experiment Backlog, Learning Log
Tagsno overlap
FramingOpportunityIdeationQuestions
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
DiscoveryOutcomesExperimentsOpportunity
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration for Impact Filter
Decision Making
Impact Filter
Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test
Paper illustration of DIBB with its method-specific working model.
Product Strategy
DIBB