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Criterion
Gemba Walk workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Operations
Gemba Walk
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration for ALPEN Method
Operations
ALPEN Method
Purposedifferent
When there is uncertainty about the real course of a process, the method brings observation to the place where work happens. It combines perception, follow-up questions, and process knowledge so decisions rest on actual workflows instead of assumptions.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.With an overloaded day full of too many tasks, a realistic picture of the day emerges. The method connects estimating, deciding, and buffer thinking so planning fits available energy and time.
Complexitysame
LowLowLow
Timedifferent
30-120 min45-90 min10-20 min daily
Participantsdifferent
2-62-81
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncAsync
Outputdifferent
Observation Notes, Improvement IdeasAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanDaily Plan, Time Estimates, Review Notes
Tagsno overlap
LeanObservationProcessOperations
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
PlanningTime managementProductivityOperations
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A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
A3 Problem-Solving workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Operations
A3 Problem Solving
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration for Constraint Analysis.
Decision Making
Constraint Analysis