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Criterion
Game Day workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
DevOps
Game Day
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration for ALPEN Method
Operations
ALPEN Method
Purposedifferent
In preparing for rare incidents, the method tests response capability under controlled conditions. It shows where assumptions about stability, roles, and recovery are too optimistic.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.With an overloaded day full of too many tasks, a realistic picture of the day emerges. The method connects estimating, deciding, and buffer thinking so planning fits available energy and time.
Complexitydifferent
HighLowLow
Timedifferent
Halber Tag45-90 min10-20 min daily
Participantsdifferent
5-202-81
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncAsync
Outputdifferent
Simulation Notes, Gaps List, Updated RunbooksAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanDaily Plan, Time Estimates, Review Notes
Tagsno overlap
ResilienceOperationsIncident
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
PlanningTime managementProductivityOperations
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A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration for Constraint Analysis.
Decision Making
Constraint Analysis
Paper illustration of DIBB with its method-specific working model.
Product Strategy
DIBB