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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Operations A3 Problem Solving |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | For a complex deviation with several people involved, the method bundles problem, analysis, and decision onto one page. It creates a shared working space where causes, countermeasures, and follow-up fit together. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 4-12 Experten | 2-5 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | A3 Report, Action Plan, Root Cause Analysis |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | EstimationExpertsForecasting | LeanProblem solvingCoachingOperations |
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