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Criterion
Paper illustration of Futures Wheel with its method-specific working model.
Systems Thinking
Futures Wheel
Paper illustration for Three-Point Estimation.
Decision Making
Three-Point Estimation
Paper illustration for OODA Loop.
Decision Making
OODA Loop
Purposedifferent
The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event.A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes.In dynamic situations, decisions become outdated faster than they can be prepared. The OODA Loop holds observing, orienting, deciding, and acting together as a recurring rhythm so reaction does not slide into inertia.
Complexitysame
MediumMediumMedium
Timedifferent
60-120 min10-30 min je Item15-60 min je Zyklus
Participantsdifferent
3-101-81-8
Formatsame
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic SignalsThree-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption NotesSituation Assessment, Decision Loop, Action Updates
Tagsno overlap
ForesightSystems thinkingSignals
EstimationUncertaintyForecasting
DecisionChangeLearningStrategy
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Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration of the Force Field Analysis working structure.
Decision Making
Force Field Analysis
Paper illustration of Leverage Points with its method-specific working model.
Systems Thinking
Leverage Points
Paper illustration of VUCA Scan with its method-specific working model.
Systems Thinking
VUCA Scan