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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Product Discovery Pretotyping |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | Pretotyping clarifies whether a customer problem and solution idea create enough real demand. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence, and captures the result as a pretotyping sketch, test setup, and conversion data. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 1-5 Tage | Stunden bis wenige Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | Nutzertraffic | 1-4 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | Pretotyping sketch, Test setup, Conversion data, Go or no-go decision |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | ValidationDemandMVP |
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