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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 0.5-2 Tage | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 4-12 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |
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