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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Decision Making Red Teaming |  Knowledge Modeling IBIS |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | For strategic decisions with high reach, agreement and gut feeling are often not enough. Red teaming brings deliberate opposition into the situation and tests where a plan breaks under real counterarguments. | IBIS structures thinking about complex questions as a sequence of issues, ideas, and arguments. The method keeps discussions open without forcing them into premature consensus. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 1-4 h | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 3-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Challenge Findings, Risk Register, Mitigation Plan | Issue Map, Positions, Argument Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | RiskDecisionSensemaking | RationaleKnowledgeDecision |
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