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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Agile Planning Poker |  Agile Affinity Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When estimates within the team diverge too much, it puts differing expectations on a common test bench. It separates rough complexity from unspoken assumptions. | When many tasks need to be classified quickly, it sorts them by perceived effort and similarity. It reduces the effort of fine-grained estimation for large volumes. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 2-5 min je Item | 30-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 3-9 | 3-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Relative Estimates, Assumption Notes, Split Candidates | Affinity Size Map, Grouped Estimates, Unclear Items |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | EstimationAgileRelative sizingTeam | EstimationBacklogRelative sizing |
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