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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Product Discovery Opportunity Solution Tree |  Product Discovery Test Card |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When discovery keeps swinging between goals, ideas, and learning loops, it creates clear steering logic. It connects the desired outcome, opportunities, and experiments into a legible structure. | The Test Card turns a critical assumption into a testable claim and specifies in advance which result counts as success. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 1-2 h Setup, laufend | 20-35 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 2-6 | 1-5 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Opportunity Solution Tree, Experiment Backlog, Learning Log | Test Card with a pre-set threshold |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | DiscoveryOutcomesExperimentsOpportunity | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis |
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