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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Innovation Lean Startup |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | For uncertain business assumptions, the method forces the idea into contact with real market reactions early. It separates wishful picture, assumption, and observable behavior, so that learning becomes faster than planning. This translates uncertainty into measurable insight. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | Wochen bis Monate je Lernzyklus | 2-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 2-8 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Hypothesis list, MVPs, Learning reports, Pivot or persevere decision | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | LeanStartupValidationMVP | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange |
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