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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Innovation Lean Startup |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | For uncertain business assumptions, the method forces the idea into contact with real market reactions early. It separates wishful picture, assumption, and observable behavior, so that learning becomes faster than planning. This translates uncertainty into measurable insight. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitysame | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | Wochen bis Monate je Lernzyklus | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 2-8 | 2-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Hypothesis list, MVPs, Learning reports, Pivot or persevere decision | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | LeanStartupValidationMVP | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |
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