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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Product Strategy Lean Canvas |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When an early product bet still has too many open points, it brings target group, problem, and assumptions into a single view. It condenses the idea so core risks become nameable. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 45-90 min | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 1-6 | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Lean Canvas, Core Assumptions, Experiment Backlog | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | StartupLeanAssumptionsBusiness model | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth |
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