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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Systems Thinking Iceberg Model |  Operations ALPEN Method |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | The Iceberg Model separates visible events from patterns, structures, and mental models. This turns a single observation into a deeper understanding of why a problem keeps recurring. | With an overloaded day full of too many tasks, a realistic picture of the day emerges. The method connects estimating, deciding, and buffer thinking so planning fits available energy and time. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 30-60 min | 10-20 min daily |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 2-10 | 1 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Iceberg Worksheet, Pattern Notes, Intervention Ideas | Daily Plan, Time Estimates, Review Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | Systems thinkingRoot causePatterns | PlanningTime managementProductivityOperations |
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