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Criterion
Paper illustration of Futures Wheel with its method-specific working model.
Systems Thinking
Futures Wheel
Paper illustration of an IBIS map with issues, positions and arguments
Knowledge Modeling
IBIS
Red Teaming method illustration showing its working structure
Decision Making
Red Teaming
Purposedifferent
The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event.IBIS structures thinking about complex questions as a sequence of issues, ideas, and arguments. The method keeps discussions open without forcing them into premature consensus.For strategic decisions with high reach, agreement and gut feeling are often not enough. Red teaming brings deliberate opposition into the situation and tests where a plan breaks under real counterarguments.
Complexitydifferent
MediumMediumHigh
Timedifferent
60-120 min1-3 h1-4 h
Participantsdifferent
3-102-83-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic SignalsIssue Map, Positions, Argument NotesChallenge Findings, Risk Register, Mitigation Plan
Tagsno overlap
ForesightSystems thinkingSignals
RationaleKnowledgeDecision
RiskDecisionSensemaking
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration for Argument Mapping
Decision Making
Argument Mapping
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration of a Concept Map with concepts and labelled links
Knowledge Modeling
Concept Mapping
Paper illustration for Cynefin Workshop.
Decision Making
Cynefin Workshop