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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Knowledge Modeling IBIS |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | IBIS structures thinking about complex questions as a sequence of issues, ideas, and arguments. The method keeps discussions open without forcing them into premature consensus. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 1-3 h | 2-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 2-8 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Issue Map, Positions, Argument Notes | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | RationaleKnowledgeDecision | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange |
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