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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Knowledge Modeling IBIS |  Operations Causal Factor Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | IBIS structures thinking about complex questions as a sequence of issues, ideas, and arguments. The method keeps discussions open without forcing them into premature consensus. | For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 1-3 h | 2-6 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 2-8 | 3-10 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Issue Map, Positions, Argument Notes | Event Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective Actions |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | RationaleKnowledgeDecision | CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline |
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