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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Operations Fault Tree Analysis |  Systems Thinking Iceberg Model |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | For a critical top event with several possible triggers, the method logically models failure paths. It makes visible which combinations of conditions can lead to damage. | The Iceberg Model separates visible events from patterns, structures, and mental models. This turns a single observation into a deeper understanding of why a problem keeps recurring. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 2-6 h | 30-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 3-8 | 2-10 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Fault Tree, Critical Paths, Cause Hypotheses, Control Actions | Iceberg Worksheet, Pattern Notes, Intervention Ideas |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | RiskRoot causeSafety | Systems thinkingRoot causePatterns |
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