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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. |
Complexitysame | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 60-120 min | 10-30 min je Item |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 2-8 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting |
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