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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 1-4 Wochen | 10-30 min je Item |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 6-30 Experten | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting |
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