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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 1-4 Wochen | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |
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