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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Operations Change Analysis |  Systems Thinking Iceberg Model |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | For a deviation after a change, the method isolates the influence of the altered condition. It narrows down which differences are relevant and which are just accompanying noise. | The Iceberg Model separates visible events from patterns, structures, and mental models. This turns a single observation into a deeper understanding of why a problem keeps recurring. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 45-120 min | 30-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 2-6 | 2-10 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Change Matrix, Cause Hypotheses, Validation Questions, Action List | Iceberg Worksheet, Pattern Notes, Intervention Ideas |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | ChangeRoot causeTroubleshootingComparison | Systems thinkingRoot causePatterns |
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