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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Operations Change Analysis |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | For a deviation after a change, the method isolates the influence of the altered condition. It narrows down which differences are relevant and which are just accompanying noise. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 45-120 min | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 2-6 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Change Matrix, Cause Hypotheses, Validation Questions, Action List | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | ChangeRoot causeTroubleshootingComparison | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |
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