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| Criterion | ![]() Systems Thinking Futures Wheel | ![]() Operations Causal Factor Analysis | ![]() Operations After-Action Review |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events. | After missions or project phases with unclear outcomes, the method makes visible what actually happened and what can be learned from it. It separates course, effect, and causes so experience turns into solid improvement. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 2-6 h | 20-45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 3-10 | 3-12 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Event Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective Actions | Lessons learned, Action items, Event summary |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline | LearningOperationsImprovement |
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