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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Operations Barrier Analysis |  Operations ALPEN Method |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | For a risk that can only be managed through multiple layers of protection, the method examines the effectiveness of each barrier. It shows where safeguards are missing, too weak, or fail under real conditions. | With an overloaded day full of too many tasks, a realistic picture of the day emerges. The method connects estimating, deciding, and buffer thinking so planning fits available energy and time. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 2-4 h | 10-20 min daily |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 2-6 | 1 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Barrier Inventory, Failure Analysis per Barrier, Action Backlog | Daily Plan, Time Estimates, Review Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | Root causeSafetyIncident | PlanningTime managementProductivityOperations |
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