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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 2-4 h | 10-30 min je Item | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 3-8 | 1-8 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |
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