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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Systems Thinking Theory of Change |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | Theory of Change translates a desired impact into a traceable chain of change. It makes assumptions, intermediate goals, and measurement points visible before a program is rolled out at scale. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitysame | High | High | High |
Timedifferent | 2-4 h | 2-6 h | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 3-8 | 4-12 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop | Async |
Outputdifferent | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Theory of Change Map, Assumptions, Outcome Measures | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | ImpactOutcomesSystems thinkingStrategy | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |
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