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Criterion
Paper illustration for Future Reality Tree.
Systems Thinking
Future Reality Tree
Paper illustration for Solution Interview
Product Discovery
Solution Interview
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Purposedifferent
A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation.When a solution idea is already on the table, it checks how it is understood and evaluated. It looks for resonance, objections, and missing fit early in the conversation.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.
Complexitydifferent
HighMediumMedium
Timedifferent
2-4 h30-60 min je Interview45-60 min
Participantsdifferent
3-85-10 Interviews2-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved InjectionsSolution Feedback, Objection List, Validation NotesAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking
Tagsno overlap
Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange
ValidationInterviewsPrototype
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration for Evaporating Cloud.
Systems Thinking
Evaporating Cloud
Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing