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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 2-4 h | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-8 | 2-6 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.
