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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 2-4 h | 20–45 min | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 3-8 | Small cross-functional group | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop | Async |
Outputdifferent | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note |
Tagsno overlap | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth |
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