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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Systems Thinking Current Reality Tree |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 2-4 h | 20–45 min | 2-6 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-8 | Small cross-functional group | 3-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Current Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas |
Tagsno overlap | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality |
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